New York’s Congestion Toll Must Earn Its Next Increase

I support keeping New York’s congestion toll. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s^[1] first evaluation records faster morning traffic at all eight inbound bridges and tunnels it compares. That is worth preserving. But the agency should earn its next increase by delivering the alternatives it promised. A congestion charge can improve the use of scarce road space and still leave someone with no practical way to avoid a bill. My support depends on taking that person seriously.

The objection that drivers already pay taxes for roads deserves an answer. Paying for a road and paying to occupy it at a crowded hour are different things. Financing the pavement does not eliminate the delay another car can impose on everyone already using it. Does every traveler headed to the same part of town need a separate car? That is a reason to price congestion, not proof of the right price. New York’s Congestion Relief Zone (CRZ) covers local streets and avenues in Manhattan at or below 60th Street.^[2] The standard peak-period E-ZPass charge for passenger vehicles is $9, assessed once a day.^[3]

Remaining demand gives the weekend charge a reason to exist. In the MTA’s vehicle-entry data available by January 7, covering 50 complete weeks from January 5 through December 20, 2025, Tuesday mornings from 6 to 9 averaged about 30,100 entries an hour, against 15,000 on Sunday mornings.^[4] But Saturday afternoons from 3 to 6 averaged 27,300, slightly above any weekday afternoon. These are entries across all vehicle classes, rather than distinct paying drivers; vehicles staying on excluded roads are left out. The weekend peak period runs from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m..^[3] Saturday afternoon road space is hardly an unused resource.

Vehicle entries per hour into Manhattan's congestion relief zone, thousands, 2025

For a traveler whose destination, hours or mobility needs make transit impractical, this is an additional fee they have no real choice about paying. At the standard $9 rate,^[3] a driver entering once each weekday for 48 weeks would pay $2,160, assuming no discounts, exemptions or crossing credits. That is the gross bill, before valuing time saved. A faster journey can still leave the driver struggling to find the cash. Asking that person to celebrate an improvement in the average commute mistakes a regional benefit for compensation. The charge arrives whether the promised substitute is usable or not.

The distributional case also includes people who already rely on transit. For Manhattan as a whole, the MTA’s 2023 environmental assessment used census estimates from 2012 through 2016 showing that 79% of commuters from households earning under $50,000 used transit, against 9% traveling by car.^{[6, p. 17-22]} Those riders have a claim on the improvements too. Targeted relief is the better answer for people who cannot switch. The MTA’s rules include an exemption for eligible people whose disabilities prevent mass-transit use and a 50% peak-toll discount for enrolled low-income drivers after their first 10 trips in a calendar month.^[2] An occasional low-income traveler might never reach that threshold. That gap calls for better relief, not free access for every driver.

For weekday inbound travel from 6 a.m. to 10 a.m., comparing January through October in each year, the MTA’s published eight-crossing average rose from 15.4 mph in 2024 to 18.6 mph in 2025.^{[1, p. 23]} The slow crossings gained most: the four slowest in 2024 recorded improvements of about 25% to 51%, while the fastest, the Manhattan Bridge, gained 6.7%. The Holland Tunnel had the largest reported percentage gain and the Manhattan Bridge the smallest. This is a before-and-after comparison, not an experiment that isolates the toll from construction, street conditions or other changes.

Inbound weekday morning speeds into Manhattan, 2024 and 2025

The relief inside Manhattan was less dramatic. The report’s entry counts stayed 8% to 14% below its modeled baseline in every month from January through October 2025, a comparison that includes the excluded roadways as well as the zone.^{[1, p. 9]} Speed gains from 5 a.m. to 9 p.m. on weekdays across that geography ranged from 1.7% to 8.6%, compared with the corresponding months of 2024, and stood at 2.1% in October.^{[1, p. 26]} Diversion deserves scrutiny too. The agency’s monitoring found no adverse traffic effect at three highway locations but found one among four intersections, at East 36th Street and Second Avenue, where mitigation followed in August 2025.^{[1, p. 79]} A bottleneck deserves a fix even when the regional numbers look good.

Buses need more than the modest lift they have received. The MTA reports a 2.3% increase in its bus-speed measure for January through September 2025 compared with the same months in 2024.^{[1, p. 39]} That measure includes express service and some connecting segments outside the zone. Put dedicated bus lanes at the center of the bargain. I want the MTA and city to make a bus an alternative to the queue, with usable connections at the other end. The agency also estimates that daily subway trips into the zone rose 9% from January 5 through September 30, 2025, compared with the same period a year earlier.^{[1, p. 42]} Its report describes that increase as a continuation of the recovery that predates tolling. More passengers make reliable service more urgent.

The money offers a means to deliver. In its January 5 anniversary release, the governor’s office reported $518 million in net toll revenue as of November 2025.^[7] Its detailed accounting still called a year-end total above $550 million a preliminary projection. The original financing plan said tolls would support $15 billion in bonds over time, including signal work on the A/C and B/D/F/M lines and accessibility improvements at more than 20 stations.^[8] Bonds are financing, not a year’s cash takings or finished station work. The adopted schedule calls for a $12 peak E-ZPass passenger-vehicle toll in 2028 and $15 beginning in 2031.^[3] A calendar gives drivers notice. It does not give the increases a sufficient justification.

I would make the promised accessibility work a minimum delivery test for 2028. The anniversary release counts accessibility improvements at 23 or more subway stations among the projects the toll funds, and reports upgrades at nine stations in construction as of January 1.^[7] The MTA should finish that work before charging $12 and publish a station-by-station record of when each improvement opened to passengers. If it misses that test, hold the toll at $9 until it passes. This could delay revenue and other projects; it also limits the freedom to raise the price if congestion returns. I accept that cost of requiring usable improvements before a larger bill. At the scheduled rates,^[3] the same 48-week driver would owe $2,880 in 2028 and $3,600 a year from 2031, before discounts or credits. Put the promised station improvements into use before sending that bill.